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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013  期刊论文  

  • 编号：
    13460123-50fd-4034-bd3e-7815140025f3
  • 作者：
    Wang, Haidong[1] Liddell, Chelsea A.[1] Coates, Matthew M.[1] Mooney, Meghan D.[1] Levitz, Carly E.[1] Schumacher, Austin E.[1] Apfel, Henry[1] Iannarone, Marissa[1] Phillips, Bryan[1] Lofgren, Katherine T.[1] Sandar, Logan[1] Dorrington, Rob E.[3] Rakovac, Ivo[4] Jacobs, Troy A.[5] Liang, Xiaofeng[6] Zhou, Maigeng[6] Zhu, Jun[7] Yang, Gonghuan[9] Wang, Yanping[7] Liu, Shiwei[6] Li, Yichong Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu[10] Abera, Semaw Ferede[11] Abubakar, Ibrahim[12] Achoki, Tom[1,13] Adelekan, Ademola[14] Ademi, Zanfina[16] Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw[17] Allen, Peter J.[18] AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz[19] Alvarez, Elena Amankwaa, Adansi A.[20] Amare, Azmeraw T.[21,22] Ammar, Walid[23] Anwari, Palwasha[24] Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu[26] Asad, Majed Masoud[27] Assadi, Reza[28] Banerjee, Amitava[29] Basu, Sanjay[30] Bedi, Neeraj[31] Bekele, Tolesa[32] Bell, Michelle L.[33] Bhutta, Zulfi Qar[34] Blore, Jed D.[16] Basara, Berrak Bora[35] Boufous, Soufiane[36] Breitborde, Nicholas[37] Bruce, Nigel G.[38] Linh Ngoc Bui[39] Carapetis, Jonathan R.[40] Cardenas, Rosario[41] Carpenter, David O.[42] Caso, Valeria[43] Estanislao Castro, Ruben[44] CatalaLopez, Ferran[45] Cavlin, Alanur[10] Che, Xuan[48] Chiang, Peggy PeiChia[15] Chowdhury, Rajiv[49] Christophi, Costas A.[50] Chuang, TingWu[51] Cirillo, Massimo[52] Leite, Iuri da Costa[53] Courville, Karen J.[54] Dandona, Lalit[1,55] Dandona, Rakhi[55] Davis, Adrian[56] Dayama, Anand[25] Deribe, Kebede[57] Dharmaratne, Samath D.[58] Dherani, Mukesh K.[38] Dilmen, Ugur[35] Ding, Eric L.[59] Edmond, Karen M.[60] Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich[61] Farzadfar, Farshad Fereshtehnejad, SeyedMohammad[64] Fijabi, Daniel Obadare Foigt, Nataliya[66] Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.[1,62] Garcia, Ana C.[67] Geleijnse, Johanna M.[68] Gessner, Bradford D.[69] Goginashvili, Ketevan[70] Gona, Philimon[71] Goto, Atsushi[72] Gouda, Hebe N.[74] Green, Mark A.[75] Greenwell, Karen Fern[76] Gugnani, Harish Chander[77] Gupta, Rahul[78] Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi[79] Hammami, Mouhanad[80] Harb, Hilda L.[23] Hay, Simon[81] Hedayati, Mohammad T.[82] Hosgood, H. Dean[83] Hoy, Damian G.[73,84] Idrisov, Bulat T.[65] Islami, Farhad[85] Ismayilova, Samaya Jha, Vivekanand[86] Jiang, Guohong[8] Jonas, Jost B.[87] Juel, Knud[88] Kabagambe, Edmond Kato[89] Kazi, Dhruv S.[90] Kengne, Andre Pascal[91] Kereselidze, Maia[92] Khader, Yousef Saleh[93] Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan[94] Khang, YoungHo[95] Kim, Daniel[96] Kinfu, Yohannes[97] Kinge, Jonas M.[98] Kokubo, Yoshihiro[99] Kosen, Soewarta[100] Defo, Barthelemy Kuate[101] Kumar, G. Anil[55] Kumar, Kaushalendra[102] Kumar, Ravi B.[55] Lai, Taavi[103] Lan, Qing[47] Larsson, Anders[104] Lee, JongTae[105] Leinsalu, Mall[106] Lim, Stephen S.[1] Lipshultz, Steven E.[107] Logroscino, Giancarlo[108] Lotufo, Paulo A.[109] Lunevicius, Raimundas[110] Lyons, Ronan Anthony[111] Ma, Stefan[112] Mahdi, Abbas Ali[113] Marzan, Melvin Barrientos[115] Mashal, Mohammad Taufi Q.[114] Mazorodze, Tasara T.[116] McGrath, John J.[74] Memish, Ziad A.[19] Mendoza, Walter[117] Mensah, George A.[46] Meretoja, Atte[16] Miller, Ted R.[118] Mills, Edward J.[119] Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin[120] Mokdad, Ali H.[1] Monasta, Lorenzo[121] Montico, Marcella[121] Moore, Ami R.[122] Moschandreas, Joanna[123] Msemburi, William T.[91] Mueller, Ulrich O.[124] Muszynska, Magdalena M.[125] Naghavi, Mohsen[1] Naidoo, Kovin S.[126] Narayan, K. M. Venkat[26] Nejjari, Chakib[127] Ng, Marie de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean[128] Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J. Nyakarahuka, Luke[129] Ohkubo, Takayoshi[130] Omer, Saad B.[26] Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.[131] Pillayvan Wyk, Victoria[91] Pope, Dan[38] Pourmalek, Farshad[132] Prabhakaran, Dorairaj[133] Rahman, Sajjad U. R.[134] Rana, Saleem M.[135] Reilly, Robert Quentin RojasRueda, David Ronfani, Luca[121] Rushton, Lesley[136] Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya[19] Salomon, Joshua A.[59] Sampson, Uchechukwu Santos, Itamar S.[109] Sawhney, Monika[137] Schmidt, Juergen C.[56] ShakhNazarova, Marina[92] She, Jun[138] Sheikhbahaei, Sara[62] Shibuya, Kenji[139] Shin, Hwashin Hyun[140] Shishani, Kawkab[141] Shiue, Ivy[142] Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora[143] Singh, Jasvinder A.[144] Skirbekk, Vegard[98] Sliwa, Karen[2] Soshnikov, Sergey S.[145,146] Sposato, Luciano A.[147] Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi[148] Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos[149] Tabb, Karen M.[150] Talongwa, Roberto Tchio[151] Teixeira, Carolina Maria[152] Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman[153,154] Thomson, Alan J. ThorneLyman, Andrew L.[155,156] Toyoshima, Hideaki[157] Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala[158] Uwaliraye, Parfait[159] Uzun, Selen Beguem[35] Vasankari, Tommi J.[160] Nogales Vasconcelos, Ana Maria[161] Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich[162] Vollset, Stein Emil[98] Waller, Stephen[163] Wan, Xia[164] Weichenthal, Scott[140] Weiderpass, Elisabete[63] Weintraub, Robert G.[16,165] Westerman, Ronny Wilkinson, James D.[166] Williams, Hywel C.[167] Yang, Yang C.[168] Yentur, Gokalp Kadri[35] Yip, Paul[169] Yonemoto, Naohiro[170] Younis, Mustafa[171] Yu, Chuanhua[172,173] Jin, Kim Yun[174] Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed[175] Zhu, Shankuan[176] Vos, Theo[1] Lopez, Alan D.[16] Murray, Christopher J. L.[1]
  • 语种：
    英文
  • 期刊：
    LANCET ISSN：0140-6736 2014 年 384 卷 9947 期 (957 - 979) ; SEP 13
  • 收录：
     
  • 摘要：

    Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.
    Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.
    Findings We estimated that 6.3 million (95% UI 6.0-6.6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17.6 million (17.1-18.1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152.5 per 1000 livebirths (130.6-177.4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2.3 (1.8-2.9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from 6.8% to 0.1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41.6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37.4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1.4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0.9 million and 2.2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4.2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.
    Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

  • 推荐引用方式
    GB/T 7714：
    Wang Haidong,Liddell Chelsea A.,Coates Matthew M., et al. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 [J].LANCET,2014,384(9947):957-979.
  • APA：
    Wang Haidong,Liddell Chelsea A.,Coates Matthew M.,Mooney Meghan D.,&Murray Christopher J. L..(2014).Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 .LANCET,384(9947):957-979.
  • MLA：
    Wang Haidong, et al. "Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013" .LANCET 384,9947(2014):957-979.
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