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Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk chinese 期刊论文

编号：

43ab168e-fdae-4382-87ca-33841d7e9bf1
作者：

Cai, Quancai[0]^[1] Yu, Enda[1]^[2] Xiao, Yi[2]^[3] Bai, Wenyuan[3]^[4] Chen, Xing[4]^[5] He, Liping[5]^[6] Yang, Yuxiu[6]^[7] Zhou, Pinghong[7]^[8] Jiang, Xueliang[8]^[9] Xu, Huimin[9]^[10] Fan, Hong[10]^[11] Ge, Zhizheng[11]^[12] Lv, Nonghua[12]^[13] Huang, Zhigang[13]^[14] Li, Youming[14]^[15] Ma, Shuren[15]^[16] Chen, Jie[16]^[17] Li, Yanqing[17]^[18] Xu, Jianming[18]^[19] Xiang, Ping[19]^[20] Yang, Li[20]^[21] Lin, FuLin[21]^[22] Li, Zhaoshen[22]^[1]
地址：

[1]Changhai Hospital, Department of Gastroenterology,Shanghai,China
[2]Changhai Hospital, Department of Colorectal Surgery,Shanghai,China
[3]Second Military Medical University, Department of Cardiology,Shanghai,China
[4]Hebei Medical University, Department of Gastroenterology,Shijiazhuang,China
[5]s Hospital, Center Laboratory,Xian,China
[6]Fujian Provincial Hospital, Digestive Endoscopy Center,Fuzhou,China
[7]Nan Province, Department of Gastroenterology,Zhengzhou,China
[8]Fudan University, Endoscopy Center and Endoscopy Research Institute,Shanghai,China
[9]General Hospital of Jinan Military Command, Department of Gastroenterology,Jinan,China
[10]Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Department of Pharmacy,Hangzhou,China
[11]s Hospital of Yunnan Province, Department of Gastroenterology,Kunming,China
[12]Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of Medicine,Shanghai,China
[13]Nanchang University, Department of Gastroenterology,Nanchang,China
[14]Beijing Tongren Hospital, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery,Beijing,China
[15]s Reproductive Health Laboratory of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou,China
[16]Shenyang General Hospital of PLA, Center for Endoscope,Shenyang,China
[17]Changhai Hospital,Shanghai,China
[18]Shandong University, Department of Gastroenterology,Jinan,China
[19]Anhui Medical University, Department of Gastroenterology,Hefei,China
[20]Huadong Hospital, Digestive Endoscopy Center,Shanghai,China
[21]Northeast Normal University, Department of Chemistry,Changchun,China
[22]Cleveland Clinic Florida, Department of Colorectal Surgery,Fort Lauderdale,United States
Scopus被引频次：

38 次
语种：

英文
期刊：

American Journal of Epidemiology ISSN：0002-9262 2012 年 175 卷 6 期 (584 - 593)
收录：
关键词：

colonoscopy colorectal neoplasms cross-sectional studies logistic models mass screening risk factors
摘要：

No prediction rule is currently available for advanced colorectal neoplasms, defined as invasive cancer, an adenoma of 10 mm or more, a villous adenoma, or an adenoma with high-grade dysplasia, in average-risk Chinese. In this study between 2006 and 2008, a total of 7,541 average-risk Chinese persons aged 40 years or older who had complete colonoscopy were included. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 5,229 and 2,312 persons, respectively. A prediction rule was developed from a logistic regression model and then internally and externally validated. The prediction rule comprised 8 variables (age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, and white meat), with scores ranging from 0 to 14. Among the participants with low-risk (≤3) or high-risk (>3) scores in the validation cohort, the risks of advanced neoplasms were 2.6% and 10.0% (P < 0.001), respectively. If colonoscopy was used only for persons with high risk, 80.3% of persons with advanced neoplasms would be detected while the number of colonoscopies would be reduced by 49.2%. The prediction rule had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.78) and calibration (P = 0.77) and, thus, provides accurate risk stratification for advanced neoplasms in average-risk Chinese. © 2012 The Author.
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714：

Cai Quancai/35204561600[0],Yu Enda/7202680921[1],Xiao Yi/25622657000[2], et al. Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk chinese [J].American Journal of Epidemiology,2012,175(6):584-593.
APA：

Cai Quancai/35204561600[0],Yu Enda/7202680921[1],Xiao Yi/25622657000[2],Bai Wenyuan/7006181607[3],&Li Zhaoshen/26643601700[22].(2012).Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk chinese .American Journal of Epidemiology,175(6):584-593.
MLA：

Cai Quancai/35204561600[0], et al. "Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk chinese" .American Journal of Epidemiology 175,6(2012):584-593.

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