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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017  期刊论文  

  • 编号:
    55c48ecd-f069-462c-b9c4-3aad92871fd3
  • 作者:
    Murray, Christopher J. L.[1,2] Callender, Charlton S. K. H.[1] Kulikoff, Xie Rachel[1] Srinivasan, Vinay[1] Abate, Degu[14] Abate, Kalkidan Hassen[18] Abay, Solomon M.[20] Abbasi, Nooshin[43,47] Abbastabar, Hedayat[31] Abdela, Jental[13] Abdelalim, Ahmed[50] AbdelRahman, Omar[51,54] Abdi, Alireza[63] Abdoli, Nasrin[71] Abdollahpour, Ibrahim[72,73] Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi[74] Abebe, Haftom Temesgen[78] Abebe, Molla[89] Abebe, Zegeye[91] Abebo, Teshome Abuka[94] Abejie, Ayenew Negesse[100] Aboyans, Victor[101,102] Abraha, Haftom Niguse[77] Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier[104] Abrham, Aklilu Roba[11] AbuRaddad, Laith Jamal[108] AbuRmeileh, Niveen M. E.[109] Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kolkou[1,110] Acharya, Pawan[111] Adamu, Abdu A.[112,115] Adebayo, Oladimeji M.[116] Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi[117] Adekanmbi, Victor[118] Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.[112,115] Adhena, Beyene Meressa[87] Adhikari, Tara Ballav[119,120] Adib, Mina C.[121] Adou, Arsene Kouablan[122] Adsuar, Jose C.[123] Afarideh, Mohsen[36] Afshin, Ashkan[1,2] Agarwal, Gina[125] Agesa, Kareha M.[1] Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi[127,128] Agrawal, Sutapa[131,132] Ahmadi, Alireza[55] Ahmadi, Mehdi[135] Ahmed, Muktar Beshir[16] Ahmed, Sayem[138,141] Aichour, Amani Nidhal[146] Aichour, Ibtihel[146] Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine[147] Akanda, Ali S.[148] Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil[149] Akibu, Mohammed[157] Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola[159] Akinyemiju, Tomi[160] Akseer, Nadia[162] Alahdab, Fares[163,164] AlAly, Ziyad[165,166] Alam, Khurshid[169] Alebel, Animut[98] Aleman, Alicia V.[170] Alene, Kefyalew Addis[92,172] AlEyadhy, Ayman[174] Ali, Raghib[175,178] Alijanzadeh, Mehran[180] AlizadehNavaei, Reza[185] Aljunid, Syed Mohamed[190,191] Alkerwi, Ala'a[192] Alla, Francois[193] Allebeck, Peter[145,194] Almasi, Ali[56] Alonso, Jordi[195,196] AlRaddadi, Rajaa M.[197] Alsharif, Ubai[200] Altirkawi, Khalid AlvisGuzman, Nelson[201,202] Amare, Azmeraw T.[203,206] Ammar, Walid[207,209] Anber, Nahla Flamed[210,211] Andrei, Catalina Liliatta[217] Androudi, Sofia[218] Animut, Megbant Delialkie[220] Ansari, Hossein[221] Ansha, Mustafa Geleto[158] Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.[222,224] Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw[226,227] Aremu, Olatunde[228] Areri, Habtamu Abera[22] Arian, Nicholas[1] Arnlov, Johan[143,229] Artaman, Al[230] Aryal, Krishna K.[231] Asayesh, Hamid[232] Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay[84] Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal[86] Assadi, Reza[234] Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari[86] Afique, Suleman Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan[235] Ausloos, Marcel[236] Avokpaho, Euripide F. C. A.[110,237] Awasthi, Ashish[131,239] Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala[243,244] Ayele, Yohanes[13] Ayer, Rakesh[245] Ayuk, Tambe B.[249,250] Azzopardi, Peter S.[204,251] Babalola, Tesleem Kayode[252,253] Babazadeh, Arefeh[255] Radali, Hamid Badawi, Alaa[161,257] Bali, Ayele Geleto[14] Ranach, Maciej BarkerCollo, Suzanne Lyn[259] Barnighausen, Till Winfried[262,264] Barrero, Lope H.[270] Basaleem, Huda[271,849] Bassat, Quique[272,273] Basu, Arindam[274] Baune, Bernhard T.[275] Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw[93] Beghi, Ettore[277] Behzadifar, Masoud[286,291,292] Belazadifar, Meysam Bekele, Bayu Begashaw[92,293] Belachew, Abate Bekele[87] Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus[80] Belay, Ezra[88] Belay, Saba Abrahant[295] Belay, Yihalem Abebe Bell, Michelle L.[297] Bello, Aminu K.[298] Bennett, Derrick A.[178] Bensenor, Isabela M.[300] Bergeron, Gilles[305] Berhane, Adugnaw[23] Berman, Adam E.[306,307] Bernabe, Eduardo[309] Bernstein, Robert S.[313,314] Bertolacci, Gregory J.[1] Beuran, Mircea[215] Bhattarai, Suraj[318,319] Bhaumik, Soumyadeep[320] Bhutia, Zulltiqar A.[162,321] Biadgo, Belete[89,99] Bijani, Ali[329] Rikbov, Boris Bililign, Nigus[332] Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shandaat[171,333] Birlik, Sait Mentes[335,336] Birungi, Charles[339,340] Diswas, Tuhin Bizuneh, Hailemichael[343] Bleyer, Archie[345,346] Basara, Berrak Bora[348] Bosetti, Cristina[278] Boufous, Soufiane[353] Brady, Oliver J.[316] Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi[355] Brainin, Michael[356] Brazinova, Alexandra[357] Breitborde, Nicholas J. K.[359,360] Brenner, Hermann[361] Brewer, Jetty D.[363] Briant, Paul Svitil[1] Britton, Gabrielle[365,367] Burstein, Roy[1] Busse, Reinhard[199] Riff, Zahid A. CahuanaHurtado, Lucero[370] CamposNonato, Ismael R.[373] Rincon, Julio Cesar Campuzano[373,374] Cano, Jorge[315] Car, Mate[350,375] Cardenas, Rosario[379] Carrero, Juan J.[142] Carvalho, Felix[380,383] CastanedaOrjuela, Carlos A.[386,387] Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo[388,389] Castro, Franz[366] CatalaLopez, Ferran[390] Cavin, Alanur[392] Cerin, Ester[393,396] Chalek, Julian[1] Chang, HsingYi[398,399] Chang, JungChen Chattopadhyay, Aparajita[400] Chaturvedi, Pankaj[405] Chiang, Peggy PeiChia[406] Chin, Ken Lee[408] Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe[411,412] Chitheer, Abdulaal[350] Choi, JeeYoung J.[413] Chowdhury, Rajiv[414] Christopher, Devasahayam J.[416] Cicuttini, Flavia M.[409] Ciobanu, Liliana G.[418] Cirillo, Massimo[421] Claro, Rafael M.[106] ColladoMateo, Daniel[124,423] Constantin, MariaMagdalena[216] Conti, Sara[425] Cooper, Cyrus[426] Cooper, Leslie Trumbull[362] Cornaby, Leslie[1] Cortesi, Paolo Angelo[425] Cortinovis, Monica[278] Costa, Megan[427,428] Cromwell, Elizabeth A.[1,2] Crowe, Christopher Stephen[6] Cukelj, Petra[429] Cunningham, Matthew[1] Daba, Alemneh Kabeta[94] Dachew, Berihun Assefa[92,434] Dandona, Lalit[1,131] Dandona, Rakhi[1,131] Dargan, Paul I.[311,437] Daryani, Ahmad[188] Das Gupta, Raja T.[438] Das Neves, Jose[381,382] Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye[12] Dash, Aditya Prasad[440] Weaver, Nicole Davis[1] Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil[213,441] Davletov, Kairat De Leo, Diego[442] De Neve, Jan Walter[262] Degefa, Meaza Ginna[83] Degenhardt, Louisa[1,351] Degfie, Tizta Tilahun[445] Deiparine, Selina[1] Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam[24,446] Demtsu, Eakin[88] DenovaGutierrez, Edgar[371] Deribe, Kebede[23,448] Dervenis, Nikolaos[450,451] Des Jarlais, Don C.[452] Dessie, Getenet Ayalew[98] Dharniaratne, Samath D.[1,453] Dhimal, Meghnath[454] Dicker, Daniel[1] Ding, Eric L.[265] Dinsa, Ginnaye Deye[267,269] Djalalinia, Shirin[457] Huyen Phuc Do Dokova, Klara[460] Doku, David Teye[461,462] Dolan, Kate A.[354] Doyle, Kerrie E.[464] Driscoll, Tint R. Dubey, Manisha[468] Dubljanin, Eleonora[470] Duken, Eyasu Neff[19,472] Duraes, Andre R.[473,474] Ebrahimpour, Soheil[255] Edvardsson, David[242,475] El Bcheraoui, Charbel[1,2] ElKhatib, Ziad[145] Elyazar, Iqbal Rf[476] Enayati, Ahmadali[187] Endries, Aman Yesuf[477] Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich[478,480] Eshrati, Babak[456] Eskandarieh, Sharareh[42] Esmaeili, Reza[482] Esteghamati, Alireza[36] Esteghamati, Sadaf[35] Estep, Kara[1] Fakhim, Hamed[483] Farag, Tamer[1] Faramarzi, Mahbobeh[331] Fareed, Mohammad[484] Farinha, Carla Sofia E. Sa[486] Faro, Andre[487] Farvid, Maryam S.[265] Farzadfar, Farshad[43] Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein[60,67,68] Fay, Kairsten A.[1] Fazeli, Mir Sohail[488] Feigin, Valery I.[1,489] Feigl, Andrea B.[264,490] Feizy, Fariba[491] Fenny, Ama P.[492] Fentahun, Netsanet[205] Fereshtehnejad, SeyedMohammad[48,144] Femandes, Eduarda Feyissa, Garumma Tolu[17] Filip, Irina[341,494] Finegold, Samuel[1] Fischer, Florian[495] Flor, Luisa Sorio[496,497] Foigt, Nataliya A.[498] Foreman, Kyle J.[1] Fornari, Carla[499] Furst, Thomas[500,502] Fukumoto, Takeshi[503,504] Fuller, John E.[1] Fullman, Nancy[1] Gakidou, Emmanuela[1,2] Gallus, Silvano[276] Gamkrelidze, Amiran[506] Ganji, Morsaleh[36] Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho[238,507] Garcia, Gregory N. GarciaGordillo, Miguel A.[1,422] Gebre, Abadi Kahsu[86] Gebre, Teshome[508] Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe[87] Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde[16] Gebremedhin, Amanttel Tesfay[18,509] Gelano, Tilayie Feto[14] Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa[92,430] Geleijnse, 'Johanna N.[510] GenovaMaleras, Ricard[511] Gething, Peter[176] Gezae, Kebede Embaye[79] Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul[69] Ghadimi, Reza[327] Ghadiri, Keyghobad[71] Falavarjani, Khalil Ghasemi[285] GhasemiKasman, Maryam[327] Ghiasvand, Hesam[512] Ghimire, Mamata[514] Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal[516] Gill, Paramjit Singh[518] Gill, Tiffany K.[418] Giussani, Giorgia[277] Gnedovskaya, Elena V.[519] Goli, Srinivas[404,520] Gomez, Ricardo Santiago[103] GomezDantes, Hector[370] Gona, Philimon N.[522] Goodridge, Amador[364] Gopalani, Sameer Vali[523,524] Goulart, Alessandra C.[299,304] Niegia, Barbara Goulart, Garcia[525] Grada, Ayman[526] Grosso, Giuseppe[528] Gugnani, Harish Chander C.[529,530] Guo, Jingwen[1] Guo, Yuming[409] Gupta, Prakash C.[269,531] Gupta, Rahul[532,533,534,535] Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush[536,538] Haagsma, Juanita A.[539] Hachinski, Vladimir[540,541] HafeziNejad, Nima[44,546] Hagos, Tekleberhan B.[75] Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa[14] Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa[76] HajMirzaian, Arvin[33,154,546] HajMirzaian, Arya[33,154,546] Hamadeh, Randah R.[547] Hamidi, Sarver[548] Handal, Alexis J.[549] Hankey, Graeme J.[168,550] Hao, Yuantao[551,552] Harb, Hilda I.[554] Haririan, Hamidreza[556] Haro, Josep Maria[557,558] Hasan, Mehedi[438] Hassankhani, Hadi[556] Hassen, Hamid Yimam[293,559] Havrnoeller, Rasmus[560] Hay, Simon I.[2] He, Yihua[1] HedayatizadehOmran, Akbar[189] Hegazy, Mohamed I.[50] Heibati, Behzad[281] Heidari, Behnam[561] Hendrie, Delia[509] Henok, Andualem[294] Henry, Nathaniel J.[1] Herteliu, Claudiu[562] Heydarpour, Fatemeh[64] Hibstu, Desalegn T.[95] Hole, Michael K.[563] Rad, Enayatollah Homaie[564,565] Hoogar, Praveen[566] Hosgood, H. Dean[537] Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa[30,572] Chavoshi, Meimanat M. Hosseini[570] Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi[290] Hostiuc, Mihaela[213,573] Hostiuc, Sorin[214,574] Hsairi, Mohamed[575] Hsiao, Thomas[1] Hu, Guoqing[576] Huang, John J.[296] Iburg, Kim Moesgaard[577] Igumbor, Ehimario U.[579,580] Ikeda, Chad Thomas[1] Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen[581] Iqbal, Usman[582] Irenso, Asnake Ararsa[14] Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi[43,154] Isehunwa, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi[527,584] Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Sharifhl[466,586] Jahangiry, Leila[555] Jahanmehr, Nader[155,156] Jam, Sudhir Kumar Jakovljevic, Mihajlo[588] Jalu, Moti Tolera[14] James, Spencer L.[1] Jassal, Simerjot K.[167,589] Javanbakht, Mehdi[590] Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra[591,592] Jeemon, Panniyammakal[593] Jha, Ravi Prakash[596] Jha, Vivekanand[179,320] Ji, John S.[597] Jonas, Jost B.[261,598] Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy[599,600] Jungari, Suresh Banayya[601] Jurisson, Mikk[602] Kabir, Zubair[603] Kadel, Rajendra[308] Kahsay, Amaha[83] Kalani, Rizwan[3] Kapil, Umesh[604] Karami, Manoochehr[606] Martin, Behead Karami[65] Karch, Andre[607] Karema, Corine[501,608] Karimi, Seyed M.[609] Kasacian, Amir[37,38] Kassa, Dessalegn H.[98] Kassa, Getachew Muilu[97] Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale[77] Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes[96] Kassebaum, Nicholas J.[1,610] Kastor, Anshul[401] Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal[612] Kaul, Anil[613,614] Kawakami, Norito[248] Karyani, Ali Kazemi[65] Kebede, Seifu[615] Keiyoro, Peter Njenga[616] Kemp, Grant Rodgers[1,617] Kengne, Andre Pascal[619,620] Keren, Andre[621,622] Kereselidze, Maia[506] Khader, Yousef Saleh[623] Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif[134] Khajavi, Alireza[150] Khalid, Nauman[624] Khalil, Ibrahim A.[1,2] Khan, Ejaz Ahmad[625] Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb[626,627] Hang, YoungHo K. Khanna, Tripti[521,628] Khater, Mona M.[49] Khatony, Alireza[71] Khazaeipour, Zahra[25] Khazaie, Habibolah[59] Khoja, Abdullah T.[485,544] Khosravi, Ardeshir[458] Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein[632,633] Kibret, Getiye D.[99] Kidenemariam, Zelalem Teklemariam[8] Kiirithio, Daniel N.[634,635] Kilgore, Paul Evan[636,637] Kim, Daniel[638] Kim, Jun Y.[1] Kim, YoungEun Kim, Yun Jin[639,640] Kimokoti, Ruth W.[641] Kinfu, Yohannes[642] Kinra, Sanjay[317] Kisa, Adnan[643,645] Kivimaki, Mika[337,646] Kochhar, Sonli[4] Kokubo, Yoshihiro[648] Kolola, Tufa[158] Kopec, Jacek A.[369,649] Kosek, Margaret N.[545] Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A.[650] Koyanagi, Ai[557] Krishan, Kewal[651] Krishnaswami, Sanjay[344] Krohn, Kristopher J.[1] Defo, Barthelemy Kuate[652,653] Bicer, Burcu Kucuk[391,654] Kumar, G. Anil[131] Kumar, Manasi[338,616] Kumar, Pushpendra[404] Kumsa, Fekede Asefa[14,655] Kutz, Michael J.[1] Lad, Sheetal D.[657] Lafranconi, Alessandra[425] Lal, Dharmesh Kumar[131] Lalloo, Ratilal[433] Lam, Hilton[660] Lami, Faris Hasan[662] Lang, Justin J.[256] Lansky, Sonia[665] Lansingh, Van C.[663,664] Laryea, Dennis Odai[666] Lassi, Zohra S.[419] Latifi, Arman[667] Laxmaiah, Avula[630] Lazarus, Jeffrey V.[272] Lee, James B.[1] Lee, Paul H.[225] Leigh, James[465] Leshargie, Cheru Tesema[99] Leta, Samson[24] Levi, Miriam[669,670] Li, Shanshan[409] Li, Xiaohong[671] Li, Yichong[672] Liang, Juan[673,674] Liang, Xiaofeng[677] Liben, Misgan Iegesse[678] Lim, LeeLing[679,680] Limenih, Miteku Andualem[92] Linn, Shai Liu, Shiwei[682] Lorkowski, Stefan[683,684] Lotufo, Paulo A.[301] Lozano, Rafael[1,2] Lunevicius, Raimundas[685,686] Mabika, Crispin Mabika[688] Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King[223,263] Mackay, Mark T.[568,690] Madotto, Fabiana[425] Mahmood, Tarek Abd Elaziz[691] Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur[692] Majdan, Marek[693] Majdzadeh, Reza[28,41] Majeed, Azeem[375] Malekzadeh, Reza[34,694] Malik, Manzoor Ahmad[400,695] Mamun, Abdullah A.[431] Mariano, Wondimu Ayele Manda, AnaLaura[696] Mangalam, Srikanth[697,698] Mansournia, Mohammad Ali[30] Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni[425] Mapoma, Chabila Christopher[411] Marami, Dadi[10] Maravilla, Joemer C.[431] Marcenes, Wagner[310] Marina, Shakhnazarova[505] MartinsMelo, Francisco Rogerlandio[699] Martz, Winfried[700] Marzan, Melvin B.[701] MashambaThompson, Tivani Phosa[252] Masiye, Felix[1,410] MasonJones, Amanda J.[702] Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard[6] Mathur, Mann Raj[131,337] Main, Pallab K. Mazidi, Mohsen[703] McGrath, John J.[432,578] Mehata, Suresh[704] Mehendale, Sanjay Madhav[631] Mehndiratta, Man Mohan[705] Mehrotra, Ravi[706] Mehrzadi, Saeed[287] Mehta, Kala M.[707] Mehta, Varshil[708] Mekonnen, Tefera C.[711] Meles, Hagazi Gebre[88] Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam[88] Melese, Addisu[712] Melku, Mulugeta[92] Memiah, Peter T. N.[714] Memish, Ziad A.[715,716] Mendoza, Walter[717] Mengesha, Melkamu Merid[9] Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese[85] Mengistu, Getnet[13,710] Mensah, George A.[620,659] Mereta, Seid Tiku[15] Meretoja, Atte[569,719] Meretoja, Tuomo J.[647,718] Mestrovic, Tomislav[720,721] Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane[722] Miangotar, Yode[723] Miazgowski, Bartosz[725,727] Miazgowski, Tomasz[724] Miller, Ted R.[509,728] MillerPetrie, Molly Katherine[1] Mini, G. K.[593] Mirabi, Parvaneh[326] Mirica, Andreea[562,729] Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.[730,731] Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen[1,2] Moazen, Bahak[262,732] Mohammad, Karzan Abduhmuhsin[184,467,733,734] Mohammadi, Moslem Mohammadifard, Noushin[735] MohanmmdiKhanaposhtani, Marysm[325,326] Mohammed, A. Mohammed[736] Mohammed, Shafiu[262,739] Mokdad, Ali H.[1,2] Mola, Glen Dl[740,741] Molokhia, Mariam Monasta, Lorenzo[742] Montanez, Julio Cesar[397] Moradi, Ghobad[743,744] Moradi, Mahmoudreza[61] MoradiLakeh, Maziar[289] Moradinazar, Mehdi[68] Moraga, Paula[745] MorgadoDaCosta, Joana[746] Mori, Rintaro[747] Morrison, Shane Douglas[5] Mosapour, Abbas[324,748] Moschos, Marilita M.[515,749,750] Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam[32] Muche, Achenef Asmamaw[92] Muchie, Kindle Fentahun[92] Mueller, Ulrich Otto[753,754] Mukhopadhyay, Satinath[755] Murphy, Tasha B.[7,611] Muller, Kate[1] Murthy, G. V. S.[130] Musa, Jonah[756,757] Musa, Kamarul Imran[759] Mustafa, Ghulam[760,761] Muthupandian, Saravanan[81] Nachega, Jean B.[542,762] Nagel, Gabriele[763] Naghavi, Mohsen[1,2] Naheed, Aliya[139] Nahnjou, Azin Naik, Gurudatta[764] Naik, Paulami[1] Najafi, Farid[57] Naldi, Luigi[767,768] Nangia, Vinay[769] Nansseu, Jobert Richie[553,770] Naschnento, Bruno Ramos[105] Nawaz, Haseeb[771] Ncama, Busisiwe P.[252] Neamati, Nahid[324] Negoi, Ionut[215] Negoi, Ruxandra Irina[212,772] Neupane, Subas[463] Newton, Charles Richard James[177,773] Ngalesoni, Frida N.[774] Ngunjiri, Josephine W.[775] Nguyen, Grant[1] Long Hoang Nguyen[459] Trang Huyen Nguyen[459] Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini[583,776] Nirayo, Yirga Legesse[77] Nisar, Muhammad Miran[322] Nixon, Molly R.[1] Nomura, Shuhei[247,777] Noroozi, Mehdi[513] Noubiap, Jean Jacques[620] Nouri, Hamid Reza[323] Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour[189] Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza[46] Nyandwi, Alypio[778,779] Nyasulu, Peter S.[114] Odell, Christopher M.[1] OforiAsenso, Richard[407] Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel[116,780] Ogbo, Felix Akpojene[782] Oh, InHwan[783] Okoro, Anselm[784] Oladimeji, Olanrewaju[785,786] Olagunju, Andrew T.[254,420] Olagunju, Tinuke O.[126] Olivares, Pedro R.[424] Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola[787] Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun[787] Ong, Sok King[788,789] Ortiz, Alberto[791,792] OsgoodZimmerman, Aaron[1] Ota, Erika[793] Otieno, Brenda Achieng[794] Otstavnov, Stanislav S.[795] Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo[159] Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel[796] Pakhale, Mahesh P. A. Smita[798,799] Pakhare, Abhijtt P.[800] Pana, Adrian[562,803] Panda, Basant Kumar[401] PandaJonas, Songhomina[260] Pandey, Achyut Raj[455] Park, EunKee[804] Parsian, Hadi[324] Patel, Shanti[805] Patil, Snehal T.[806] Patle, Ajay[402,807] Patton, George C.[568,808] Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao[810,811] Paudel, Deepak[227,812] Pedroso, Marcel Moraes[813] Peprah, Emmanuel K.[661] Pereira, David M.[384,814] Perico, Norberto[279] Pesudovs, Konrad Petri, William A.[816] Petzold, Max[817,818] Pierce, Maxwell[1] Pigott, David M.[1,2] Pillay, Julian David[819] Pirsaheb, Meghdad[71] Polanczyk, Guilherme V.[303] Postma, Maarten J.[820] Pourmalek, Farshad[368] Pourshams, Akram[34] Poustchi, Hossein[34] Prakash, Swayam[821] Prasad, Narayan[821] Purcell, Caroline A.[1] Purwar, Manorama B.[822] Qorbani, Mostafa[823] Quansah, Reginald[493] Radfar, Arnir[342,824] Rafay, Anwar[825] Rafiei, Alireza[181,186] Rahim, Fakher[136] RahimiMovaghar, Afarin[40] RahimiMovaghah, Vafa[45] Rahman, Mahfuzar[240,247,439,587,826] Rahman, Md Shafiur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur[403] Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Sajjad Ur[797,827] Rai, Rajesh Kumar[828,829] Rajati, Fatemeh[58] Rajsic, Sasa[830] Ram, Usha[403] Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal[831] Ranjan, Prabhat[765] Rawaf, David Laith[378,832] Rawaf, Salman[375,833] Ray, Sarah E.[1] RazoGarcia, Christian[372] Reiner, Robert C.[1,2] Reis, Cesar[834] Remuzzi, Giuseppe[280] Renzaho, Andre M. N.[781] Resnikoff, Serge[835,836] Rezaei, Satar[62] Rezaeian, Shahab[71] Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh[183] Riahi, Seyed Mohammad[151,837] RiosBlancas, Maria Jesus[370] Roba, Kedir Teji[12] Roberts, Nicholas L. 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  • 语种:
    英文
  • 期刊:
    LANCET ISSN:0140-6736 2018 年 392 卷 10159 期 (1995 - 2051) ; NOV 10
  • 收录:
  • 摘要:

    Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
    Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
    Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
    Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  • 推荐引用方式
    GB/T 7714:
    Murray Christopher J. L.,Callender Charlton S. K. H.,Kulikoff Xie Rachel, et al. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 [J].LANCET,2018,392(10159):1995-2051.
  • APA:
    Murray Christopher J. L.,Callender Charlton S. K. H.,Kulikoff Xie Rachel,Srinivasan Vinay,&Lim Stephen S..(2018).Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 .LANCET,392(10159):1995-2051.
  • MLA:
    Murray Christopher J. L., et al. "Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017" .LANCET 392,10159(2018):1995-2051.
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